I know that pun sucks, but I need a lot more caffeine before I’ll figure something better and odds are I’ll just stick with it.
The overused but mostly true phrase is about someone comparing apples to oranges. They’re different and if you hint that they’re both the same you’re wrong. And certainly it should ring true with the application of the generous usage of gematria “close enough” tactics. Because when being logically fallacious people don’t actually insist that apples and oranges are the exact same, no they start pointing out the similarities and ignoring the differences. Hey, they’re both fruit. That’s close enough. They’re both not rutabagas. That’s close enough.
It would be fruitless to try to explain high level statistics to the confirmation bias crowd. I avoid too much math other than some percentages that they get wrong in sports or surname occurrences. The math beyond these is far too complex. In the big picture, for the conspiracy crowd to debate their side, they do need to be prepared to meet the opponent prepped up on statistics and probability. This post is inspired by Dan’s most recent video where I heard the phrase, “What are the odds?” several times in a few minutes.
No, you don’t get off that easy. You do not get to shift the burden of proof to math and coincidences. Once you demonstrate a rudimentary understanding then we can talk about it. Now saying “What are the odds” translates to “see, I’m right about everything since these little bits and pieces are right”.
Where the little bits and pieces aren’t even right.
Leaving the math mostly out, let’s look at the wording. Correlation does not imply causation. It can sound deeper tha it means, but for the mooks, Apples and oranges are related as they are both fruits. If you imply that they have any other similarity like both growing from the same tree that’s wrong.
You can look up the Wikipedia page on that exact phrase. And nobody even Dan needs to read a statistics book, just be aware that the evil media has produced a lot of them. Since he’s more fond of mentioning every tiny little coincidence related to his television viewing choices he hasn’t had time to bone up on that part of the Freemason /organic matrix plans for him. And there we go right away. Although it seems like Family Guy episodes are stalking him via some organic matrix concept the system is mostly used for New World Order nonsense. And they all do it with things like, “Oh there’s 206 bones in the human body. Organic matrix.” Because Freemasons or Jesuits doing that sounds stupid. Which doesn’t help that organic matrix sounds stupid as well.
But bottom line. Let’s keep with the bones since they’re close enough <snicker> to the core of the human body. Even if XXX=206 whether it’s Freemasons, organic matrix, reptilian trannies, or lorikeets you haven’t proven that any of those are the cause of that number showing up. Believe me, I’ve spent a lot of time looking around for any source material that supports the correlation versus causation angle. As far as I can tell it’s Hubbard, but he doesn’t seem clever enough to have created the idea on his own. Regardless, there’s no authoritative text, individual or group of people that can be cited to combat the wide array of evil media texts on statistics, correlation and causation. It’s also noteworthy to mention that the writers of these texts haven’t been specifically targeted as paid shills.
The problem with gematria that isn’t even really gematria is the math and the reliance on ignoring misses and being allowed to focus on the hits. So our limited math here, a coin flipped 5 times in a row showing up all heads. 1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2=3.125%. Extend that to 10 tosses about 1 hundredth of a %. Someone can choose different numbers, but these feel right to me. 1 in 100,000. What are the odds? It can’t be a coincidence? If I’m allowed to change five flips from tails to heads, a much more reasonable chance shows up. Then, if my first toss is tails and I can’t change it to heads gematria allows me this absolutely huge database to start over and wait until I start to string a series of genuine and manufactured heads results. I’m allowed to ignore that there’s a pile up of things that don’t make sense including the asinine assumption that I’m allowed to change the results I don’t like. Life doesn’t work that way.
So now we’ve got an unremarkable number deemed to be remarkable and with absolutely no justification we're supposed to believe that it’s the Jesuits or whatever.
The phrase “What are the odds” is another one that should instantly lose the argument. Prove to me YOU understand probability and until then I’m assuming you are just going to be playing pigeon chess, or as I will start calling it lorikeet chess. Once you put some actual numbers down on what YOU calculate the odds are we can go from there instead of just assuming it’s so low that it can’t happen. In recent history I’ve seen a single calculation of validly low odds, where apparently the Raptors had a miserable finish and lost to the Cavs finishing 0-11 from the field. Good for you! Now explain to me again exactly what proof you have the evil empire is the cause of this?
By the way, if Dan took a break from TV and started flipping a coin in that time instead he would eventually get some remarkable strings of consecutive heads or tails in a row. And we wouldn’t have to hear about how the TV is stalking him. It’s a no lose situation.
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