Monday, December 25, 2023

The Prisoner’s Dilemma In the Misinformation Era

 Veritasium’s Video

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/one-among-many/202205/cooperation-and-defection-in-two-social-games?amp

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma

One of our smart people brings up an important point, nicely worded to avoid pointing fingers at which political stance is which.  If you’re smart enough, you can figure it out.  There is a valid time and experimentally tested to encouraging cooperation.

Dissemination of misinformation and disinformation is highly rooted in the self serving maximum self benefit of frequent defection.  Maybe it doesn’t need to be every single time.  As with the multiple computer algorithms in the video some will sneak in cooperation although labeled as a “nasty” program.  See look here, I’m actually a nice guy!  I cooperated last week!  Sucker!  I really just wanted to throw you off - make you think I’m a nice guy just long enough to steal your girlfriend from you!

The conspiracy grifter arena is an array of nastily programmed defectors.  Some make it fairly obvious they have no intention of providing a meaningful cooperation.  Some true believers are stuck in a program that is willing to cooperate, but only with other defectors.  Some true believers want to cooperate, but haven’t been able to break out of a feedback loop that keeps them associating with known nasty defectors, get some better friends who will actually treat them like a true friend.  Some people are way too nice and let others walk all over them, their hyper empathy being dangerous to themselves.  Some people have a pretty good grasp of what’s going on and know that there’s a lot of energy being input into making individuals behave as a black and white/either or/us vs. them defector or cooperator when life is too complex and our brains are too stupid to avoid the cognitive biases in decision making.

The actually playing of these games and tournaments is defined by a designated value for the outcome.  The outcome on a 2x2 grid of just nice and nasty yields a singular known result.  The real trick is effectively defining what those numbers should be.  And how to combat the perception of what the benefit is compared to the actual value of the benefit that’s received.  And muddied by the complications of what you expect the programming (nice vs. nasty) of those you interact with.

All that is a long walk to say it’s too complex to calculate out easily.

Without adding in the factor of perception of value, look at the case where one side defects and the other cooperates.  Assuming the program is coded to recognize that at least occasional cooperation has some benefit. If the defecting side gets 5 units, the cooperating side gets 0 unit over a statistically significant run of contests a “program” will behave a certain way when it’s deciding on settling for a single unit if both defect and 3 units if both cooperate.  Now change the reward for defecting to 1000 when there is a single defector.  Changes the game completely if mutual cooperation is still stuck at three units.

Where we’re at now, is complete alteration of the perception of the value as compared to the actual value.  Even the true believers in conspiracies have a way overrated perception of the value that will be received.  And if you’re under the spell of a conspiracy grifter you’re more likely to be punished instead of rewarded for your efforts.  Thanks for joining my Patreon, sucker.

The math and psychology of social interactions are beyond the grasp of primary education.  Personalities are developing into behavioral patterns early on.  Recognition that some people need a swift kick in the ass occasionally instead of blind obedience to them can make you a better person.  A better person than me who is way too skeptical and untrusting.

The percentages of cooperating “scratch my back and I’ll eat the ticks off your’s” and gullible, extremely cognitively biased people may not be different these days.  But you can bet that based on the simple math of more people now and more social interactions now there are more of them.  And they are on social media trying to convince you the world is yours for the taking if you don’t get vaccinated, don’t pay your taxes and don’t cooperate except their with their bad ideas.



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