https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anecdotal_evidence
Over the weekend some people, myself included, had a discussion about a video regarding an earthquake that happened near Corona, California and the magical synchronicity that had occurred as the two conspiracists had just reached a point in their conversation about the coronavirus pandemic. The video seemed suspicious *to me*, as I had a gut reaction that there would have been some shaking visible instead of the steady camera observed during the alleged earthquake. I set off to the internet, found some footage of live earthquake camera footage that fit my expectations. Yet still, I posted my findings on the message board to get feedback. Some possible explanations were provided, notably a stabilized camera in case the video maker lived near train tracks. (Or a highway or construction or other known constant recurring source of noise and vibration.)
But this does in no way, shape or form prove that the source video wasn’t faked. As sure as I am that it is even after possible explanations, my cognitive bias of being exceptionally mistrustful combined with looking for trouble is not going to convince a jury with a standard of reasonable doubt. But, it does mean the earthquake video itself is just anecdotal evidence. There’s no direct proof that it was filmed during the earthquake instead of staged afterward.
There’s an old saying in the conspiracy critic world. The plural of anecdote is misinformation. I have mixed feelings about it, but I get the point. If 100 people posted similar videos and none of them had some shaking going on, that would make it look even more suspicious. Like 99 people saw the first one and thought it would be fun to copy it since the original got what they crave most - attention.
From a cognition standpoint, think about your friend sharing a remarkable story. He had a dream that Buffy the Vampire Slayer appeared at his graduation ceremony and while getting dressed for that ceremony Buffy is on TV as his Mom just turns it on. Because it’s EXCEPTIONAL it gets related. If the TV is not on Buffy, there’s no story. There’s nothing worthy of reporting. And like our earthquake we really only have his word that the dream actually occurred. Now if the entire class relates the dream story you may have a case of genuine supernatural influence. If one small group of weirdos relates the story it doesn’t improve the quality. It just makes it seem stranger that only the group of weirdos that hung out at lunch together might be looking for attention and it would be more fun to disrupt the ceremony for lulz. You need statistical quantity and quality to be compelling.
This form of mass hysteria can maybe be best exemplified during the early pandemic days where there was a rash of vaccine injury videos. People “forced” to be vaccinated against their will with uncontrollable fits of shaking without the benefit of an earthquake. The first couple might be believable. But then as more and more show up and you look through the timelines and they’re really into Malone and McCullough you get the sense they are just the weirdos who ate lunch together. The anecdote when it’s fresh is an engagement weapon. When overused it becomes more suspicious and the anecdote becomes its own worst enemy.
And gematria fills the bill of overused and suspicious, just because you resort to the use of gematria to prove your point. Based on gematria tricks to force the number you want and the overwhelming database of daily bad news to pick from it’s impossible to not be able to create some kind of engagement outrage porn narrative on a daily basis. Instead of just accepting the first video you see at face value, a little research will show that these people have amazing coincidences every day making them a god like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, the best sports gamblers who weirdly don’t make money on sports but ask you for money, and declare the end of the world every single day. How many days the world doesn’t end it takes to get to the center of the Tootsie Pop is a mystery.
What gematria is doing to mess with your brain is insisting the unremarkable is remarkable. Instead of a Tootsie Roll in the middle with f your pop there’s more hard candy, or even worse empty space. Finding “56” or whatever number - including multiple times in one narrative - is absolutely no big deal at all. Intelligent critics can and do make number lists proving the opposite of the low value gematria guru narrative makers all the time.
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