https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_C._Clarke
I did get to see Isaac Asimov live, but the opportunity to listen to Clarke live never arose. Not so much never arose, but more so I was in to maximizing entertainment over scientific knowledge and just never bothered investing any effort. Good old Artie, the idea man behind 2001, A Space Odyssey. Like Asimov, one of the kings of hard science in fiction instead of total weird science fiction.
The video is a classic example of the difference between when a smart scientist makes predictions as opposed to when a gematria grifter makes predictions. Let’s start off by giving predictive Clarke a gematria name - Arthur 4C Clarke. Because 4C = Foresee. Run that through your 1,974,489,201 ciphers and you’ll find something evil lurking in there.
A competent scientific mind, that understands the scientific method and how science weeds out incorrect information and then builds upon itself, can produce some stunning predictions. I wonder if he were alive today if his message for a 50 year period beyond now would be so hopeful. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
There’s a pretty impressive checklist of things he was remarkably correct about, including the timing. Most notably the advances in computing and communications. The basis of these somewhat vague predictions is understanding that technological advancement far outpaced the humanity advancements - how do we cope socially with the problems that arise? The smartphone I’m using now will be obsolete next…oh crap, it was obsolete as of three days ago.
As for his ideas on bioengineering - humanity may indeed be at an end of significant advancement, though I disagree with the reason. Compared to advancement of technology we are socially advancing so slowly, reacting to fires that need to be put out instead of proactive solutions being created, we will never be able to keep pace.
Every major advancement in communication has lead to social upheaval. Tribal humans only interacted with their own tribe. Then they met neighboring tribes and made civilizations. Then they interacted with other civilizations. Now the world interacts on a global scale. Up until the point of if and when we do make contact with other life in the stars there’s not much room for another level.
Here are some of my predictions for the next 25 years. Based on social upheaval.
1). A return to more autocratic governments with a relatively short term disastrous impact on the global economy. Major players will stop alliances because they deem the other trading partners inability to elect/embrace competent leadership as a sign they don’t want to do business with them anymore.
2). Living with the long term effects of climate change. Poorer nations will simply not have the resources to cope with the gigantic costs involved. Another relatively short term disastrous impact on the global economy. We’ve already proven we care more about putting out fires than stopping them from lighting in the first place. The first sign will be a massive failure in the insurance industry.
3). A shift in attitudes towards real estate investment. Hollywood producers and their royalties, landlords and their REITs, finance with their stocks, bonds, and meme type crap like crypto, the way to be rich is to be born into old money and sit on passive income. Not work for it. Housing of the low income people has always been a problem in my lifetime. Now, so called middle income people can’t cope. Existence will be prioritized over saving money for retirement. In return for the collapse of an effective social security system the rich people will have to live with not being able to get an easy 10% rate of return for doing nothing but being the lucky owner of the apartment complex Daddy bought in 1975.
4). We will finally have the cure for cancer mostly figured out. But of course it will remain outside the cost of the average person. And I say mostly, not 100% because of the economics. The science can be there, but if people can’t accept the miracle of vaccination for what it is, why should they accept curing cancer?
5). Aliens. Nah. There are two types of potential aliens. Those that want to be potential trading partners and those that want to eat or kill us. If they’re advanced enough they can find material resources far closer than traveling here. If they’re advanced enough to kill us from afar they already figured out the signs of life (atmospheric chemicals and long range telescopes) and they won’t need to show up. They’ll just aim their gematria beam and make us stupider than we are now. Let us fight among ourselves on Maple Street. If they’ve figured out how to get along with their own members they have no need for us.
6). Birth rates in developed countries will continue to decline. Undeveloped countries will be the source of population growth globally. The cost of having kids and socializing them is too much of a burden.
These depressing thoughts are based on how the Earth is a self correcting closed system. Your politicians can talk about policies all they want, but bureaucrats don’t make policy anymore than they did in 1964.
But I’m nowhere near as smart as Clarke. So I’m bound to be wrong about everything there. And why worry when you can just explain it all away with a two digit number?
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